home Audience 12 War in Yemen: causes and external players. War in Yemen: historical background and geopolitical aspects Request to Russia to resolve the conflict

War in Yemen: causes and external players. War in Yemen: historical background and geopolitical aspects Request to Russia to resolve the conflict

The rebels kidnapped the head of the presidential office. As a result of violent clashes on January 19 between the Houthis and members of the security service of the country's President Abd Hadi, nine people were reportedly killed and over 60 were injured.

On January 20, 2015, rebels occupied the presidential palace in Sana'a. A member of the political council of the Ansar Allah rebel movement, Hamza al-Houthi, said that the rebels “are not trying to overthrow the president,” and the clashes that occurred with units of the presidential guard were provoked by the military personnel themselves, who refused to hand over weapons from the arsenals on the territory of the palace complex of the head of state “for safekeeping.” "to the rebels.

On January 21, Yemeni President Hadi and Houthi representatives reached a preliminary ceasefire agreement. According to published information, the parties agreed that the text of a new constitution will be formulated, turning Yemen into a federal state and all groups of the population, including the Houthis, will be represented in the institutions of power. The rebels, in turn, pledged to withdraw their forces from government installations they had captured, as well as to release the head of the president's office, Ahmad Awad Bin Mubarak, who they had captured.

On January 22, President Hadi submitted his resignation. At the same time, the Yemeni parliament reportedly refused to accept the resignation of the head of state. Members of the Yemeni government also sent their resignations to the country's president. On February 6, the Houthi Revolutionary Committee was created as a temporary government body in the country.

On 21 February 2015, Hadi managed to escape from Sana'a to Aden, after being under house arrest for a month. There he met with the governors of the southern provinces and made a statement withdrawing his resignation letter.

Intervention by Arab coalition forces

On February 26, 2015, the invasion of Yemen by Arab coalition forces led by Saudi Arabia was launched. By August, the Saudi coalition had concentrated a powerful mechanized force in the southern Yemeni provinces and began to fight its way north. The bulk of the pro-Saudi troops are units of the United Arab Emirates army and the infantry of the “People's Committees” from among Hadi’s supporters. In the province of Lahij, dozens of units of various armored vehicles from the UAE were seen: Humvee armored cars with Kornet-E ATGMs, AMX-56 Leclerc tanks, 155-mm self-propelled guns.

On August 9, 2018, 29 children were killed and dozens were injured during an air raid by Saudi coalition forces. A bomb hit a passenger bus. The total number of dead and injured is about 130 people.

Humanitarian situation

Abdullah Saleh's conflict with the Houthis and his murder

Southern separatists protest against Hadi's government

Among the separatists of the South, Tariq al-Fadli, a well-known anti-communist jihadist who heads the self-proclaimed Islamic Emirate of Abyan, occupies a special position. Acting from a separatist position against the central authorities of Sanaa, al-Fadli and his formation, affiliated with al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, oppose the Houthis and cooperate with the Saudi coalition.

A request to Russia to resolve the conflict

Truce in Hodeidah

Resumption of hostilities in 2019

On January 5, 2019, fighting resumed in the strategically important port of Hodeidah. The fighting coincided with the visit of the UN Secretary General's special envoy for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, to the country. Government forces and rebel groups from the Ansarullah movement (Houthis) accused each other of violating the ceasefire. The command of government forces said that clashes broke out in the area of one of the university buildings in the south of Hodeidah. Eyewitnesses reported a large fire in the area of warehouses with humanitarian supplies of the World Food Program.

On January 10, 2019, a drone belonging to Houthi rebels attacked a Yemeni government military parade at one of the largest military bases, Al-Andes, in Lahj province in southern Yemen. At least six high-ranking officials were wounded in the attack (two of whom later died). In total, six deaths and nearly two dozen wounded were reported.

On January 14, representatives of the Yemeni armed forces announced that in the province of Al-Dali, the Houthis lost over 20 militiamen in heavy fighting, including battalion commander Abu al-Qarar.

June 2019: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) began withdrawing troops from Yemen (a UAE official stated that “there have been troop movements (...) but we are not withdrawing them from Yemen”). The UAE is reducing its military presence in Yemen due to concerns about the US-Iran conflict.

Attack on oil refineries

On the night of September 14, 2019, the facilities of Saudi Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia, were attacked by unmanned aerial vehicles. The world's largest oil refinery complex in the village of Abqaiq in the east of the country and the area where the Khurais oil field, the second largest in the kingdom, is located, were attacked. After the attacks, large fires broke out in factories. These attacks led to a roughly halving of Saudi Arabia's oil production. The Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack, saying the attacks were carried out using 10 drones. They promised to carry out even more attacks on Saudi targets in the future.

We provide our readers with an analysis of current events in Yemen in the form of a conversation between Lugansk journalist and writer Gleb Bobrov and journalist of our publication Ravid Gore.

Before we move on to the main topic - the war in Yemen, tell me - what was the balance of power in the region? And what is the brief background to this conflict through the eyes of an ordinary Israeli?

If we very, very briefly describe the prerequisites for the escalation of the conflict in Yemen and go through the main points of history, we get the following picture:
Yemen is a poor and restless country, constantly, since its liberation from the influence of the Ottoman Empire and the British, in a permanent civil war with rare periods of silence. The main source of income for the budget is the export of oil, the reserves of which are steadily declining and are not comparable with the oil reserves of its neighbors. In 2009, gas was found - but there was even less of it than in Ukraine. In Yemen, the average lifespan is only 60 years, each family has an average of five children, and the vast majority of women are illiterate. There are slightly more Sunnis in the country than Shiites. And in Yemen there is no water at all, the country is on the verge of an environmental disaster. Water is transported there under the protection of machine gunners. I don’t think the majority of Yemeni citizens wash themselves at least once a week. Only very rich people can afford this.

Wherever there are Shiites and Sunnis, as in Yemen, sooner or later someone will incite conflict based on religious differences. Peace here is only possible if one group absolutely dominates the other and keeps the non-believers in a black body, like their Saudi neighbors.
In addition, there was a division of Yemen into North and South. Northern Yemen gained independence from the Turks in 1918 and changed its political system and name several times. South Yemen gained independence from the British only in 1967, also changed its name once, and also suffered from internal strife.

In the north, at first they built a monarchy, but then they chose capitalism. They tried to build socialism in the south, but somehow it didn’t work out. After two decades of hostility, the two republics united in 1990 to form what is now Yemen. As you might guess, the internal age-old contradictions, even if they were smoothed out, did not completely disappear into nowhere. Just 4 years after the unification, separatists in the south launched an uprising, which was brutally suppressed by the northerners.
Ali Abdallovich Saleh, the permanent president of North Yemen since 1978, became the president of the united Yemen, but not immediately. It took Mr. Saleh four years to gain full presidential power in the new state, which required him to kill separatists in the south in a 1994 uprising and impose martial law.

And so, President Saleh ruled more or less calmly and single-handedly over the united state for more than 16 years, until the Maidan was staged for him in 2011. Back then it was called the Arab Spring. Why Saleh did not please the organizers of the Maidans is not particularly clear, but it is quite possible that someone did not like the permanent leader of Yemen because he belonged to the Zaydis, that is, to the Shiites, and therefore, by definition, should be loyal to Iran and Iraq.
Saleh fought like a lion. His supporters fought the Yemeni maydauns. A lot of blood was shed, but Saleh himself held out for more than a year, was seriously wounded after an artillery shelling of the presidential palace, and was betrayed by his brother. But then, already in exile in Saudi Arabia, he was forced to sign a document transferring power to a new “democratic” government.

Saleh could be called the Yemeni Yanukovych, but I believe he would kill anyone with his own hands for such an insult, regardless of age and the consequences of the wound.

By the way, Saleh was friends with Russia, and was awarded the international prize of St. Andrew the First-Called “Dialogue of Civilizations” for 2004 - “for his services in strengthening friendship and cooperation between the peoples of Russia and Yemen, as well as for his contribution to international anti-terrorism efforts.”
After a successful armed coup, like Yemen's Poroshenko, Abd-Rabu Mansurovich Hadi, who served as vice president under Saleh, became a democratic president. But he did not manage to hold the presidency for the benefit of freedom, democracy and the Euro-Atlantic choice for long.

In 2014, an anti-Maidan movement arose in Yemen, which achieved success using exactly the same methods as the revolutionaries of the Arab Spring of 2011. All the prerequisites for it were laid decades ago, but the germ of the conflict was created in 2004 in northern Yemen with the creation of the Houthi-Shiite protest movement and the first Houthi uprising against the central government. The movement's supporters are called Houthis after their first leader to die in battle, and they are Zaidi Shiites, who make up about a third of the population.

The Houthis are not much different from ordinary Arab maydauns, with the exception of their orientation toward Iran and hatred of the West. The Houthis staged an uprising against the government due to discrimination and in protest against global corruption at all levels. When the Yemeni maydauns began to overthrow the legitimate government, they were the first, and the Houthis, taking advantage of the situation, opposed everyone at once: both the government and the junta.

It was then, back in 2004, that the glorious tradition of crushing the Houthis with the help of the Saudi army was born. It was thanks to the help of the Saudis, at the request of Saleh, that the first uprising in the north of Yemen was suppressed, as a result of which the leader of Al-Houthi was killed.

And who are the Yemeni maydauns? Without exception, all the media are modestly silent on this topic, but we managed to find out something. As in Ukraine, there is a complete mix of coalitions of different extremists: the al-Qaeda branch, which has sworn allegiance to ISIS, the non-governmental Sunni armed groups Ansar al-Sunna, the confederation of Hashid tribes, the al-Islah movement, the group " Ansar al-Sharia." The key players and genius maydauns who initiated the collapse of the country are the Hashid and al-Islah tribes.

The Houthi rebellion against the new government began with demonstrations and protests in August last year against rising gasoline prices, quickly turned into an armed stage, and by the end of January, a total of 20 thousand Houthis had already captured key buildings in the capital Sanaa, taking control of vast areas in the most populated parts of the country, after which President Hadi submitted his resignation and was placed under house arrest. Hadi managed to lose the country by completely becoming like his Ukrainian counterpart Yanukovych, with American advisers and American weapons at hand. Instead of quietly strangling the ousted president, the Houthis for some reason released him a month later from house arrest. On February 21, Hadi fled to the port city of Aden, which he designated as the country's temporary capital. There he survived an assassination attempt, continued his resistance, and also called for military intervention in Yemen. After the Houthis seized control of Aden on March 25, the former president fled the country. Well, definitely Yanukovych.

What was Saudi Arabia doing while Yemenis were killing each other?

An effectively functioning military bloc of Arab Sunni states, the Peninsula Shield, led by the Saudis, which grew out of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf in opposition to the gaining influence of Shiite Iran, was created and legally formalized three years ago, but in At that time, this event passed unnoticed, since few people were interested, with the exception of some military experts.
Thus, the Saudis did not waste time in vain in recent years, and did not throw words to the wind, but methodically engaged in the organizational construction of the Arab Military Alliance, which allowed them to quickly and relatively effectively jointly launch a military operation in Yemen at the first whistle from Riyadh.

Why should the Saudis interfere in the situation in Yemen?

Yemen is a very bad neighbor, poor, aggressive and suffering from schizophrenia, who has nothing to eat, and who allows anyone to roam around its territory. The Saudis have tried in the past to help President Saleh bring order to the country by force. But now the situation on the border for its stronger neighbor has worsened significantly: Shiites, supported by a hostile Iran, have come to power in Yemen, who in Saudi Arabia itself make up about a third of the population. In addition, it was the Houthis who in the past tried to drag the Saudis into internal disputes, committing armed provocations against them, and achieved their goal. Over the past two years, good Americans have supplied the pro-Western Hadi government in Yemen with half a billion dollars worth of weapons and ammunition, which all fell into the hands of the Houthis.

The success of the Yemeni Shiites in the struggle for power will most likely lead to the fact that the Saudi Shiites, receiving support and example, will raise their heads and begin a bloody struggle with the Sunni regime they hate, and who will be happy about this except Iran?

Judge for yourself, would you like such a neighbor next door? And keep in mind that you either have very few ways to solve the problem while remaining within the framework of international law, or even absolutely none. So the Saudis threw aside all timidity and shyness, and did what they always do in the Middle East: if you are big and strong, and you have a good heavy club, and someone small and bad is raging next to you, then the choice of solution is obvious . Unless someone as strong and evil as you yourself stands up for the small and bad one.

Is al-Qaeda somehow involved in what is happening?

Al-Qaeda became an affiliate of ISIS. It now controls large areas of the country, but much less densely populated. Al-Qaeda fights both against the Houthis and is a banned organization in Saudi Arabia, where it has been well eradicated. So the Sunnis from ISIS will also fall from the Arab coalition, along with the Houthis, so as not to stick their neck out.

So why is there so much noise around the events in poor and weak Yemen?

The picture would not be complete without mentioning one important detail: Yemen, poor as it may be, is located at a point from which it is possible to control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which 5% of all the world's oil is transported, and which is the shortest route from Europe to Southeast Asia and Australia. If you put a Gradov division on the Yemeni shore, not a single ship will be able to pass through the strait. When it comes to such an important matter, whoever causes a mess in Yemen is signing his own death warrant, unless he is able to quickly restore order in the country and demonstrate peace to all Gulf countries.

How did Russia react to what was happening, is it involved in resolving the conflict?

Moscow opposed interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states and called for a cessation of hostilities in Yemen in order to prevent the escalation of the situation and the collapse of the country along the lines of Libya. Arab countries must solve their problems peacefully and without outside interference. This opinion was expressed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in his message sent to the heads of state and government of the member countries of the League of Arab States. Also earlier, Putin spoke on the phone with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, convincing him that the best solution to the problem is peaceful means and dialogue between the parties. Vladimir Putin also had a telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in which they discussed the situation in Yemen and Syria. It is noticeable that the Russian president is making considerable efforts to put out the fire. But Russia doesn’t have enough leverage.

And what are Russia’s successes in this direction?

For some reason, the Saudis really didn’t like the peace initiative of Russia and its president. Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Saud Faisal noted that Russia talks about the tragedy in the Middle East as if it has nothing to do with it. However, according to him, it is Russia that is part of the crisis in Syria. Prince Saud Faisal continued: “Russia allows the Syrian regime to receive more than enough weapons.” Prince Saud Faisal then demanded that Russia bear its own degree of responsibility for the situation in the Middle East.

The Saudi policy has received support from the United States, including logistical support, which is in an awkward position due to the fact that they hope to complete negotiations on a nuclear deal with Shiite Iran, which, in turn, traditionally supports co-religionists in Arab countries. Washington and Tehran are also waging, in fact, a common fight against radical Islamists from ISIS in Iraq. Great Britain and Türkiye announced their agreement to supply weapons to the Saudis. The Egyptian Navy has already entered the Gulf of Aden, taking control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and cutting off the Houthis from sea routes through which Iran can send military assistance.

What is your forecast and assessment of events?

Israel can only watch from the sidelines as Muslims of different persuasions reduce each other's numbers. While they are busy doing what they love, we can reduce spending on the army and devote time to internal problems. Whatever the outcome of the conflict in Yemen, Iran will spend a large amount of its limited resources supporting the Shiites, whether they win or lose. The most unfavorable development for Israel would be the creation of a pro-Iranian Shiite state even in part of Yemen. This state will be absolutely toothless, but Iran's influence in the region will increase.

Saudi Arabia will soon realize that air raids alone cannot solve the problem at its borders. We realized this back in 2006, when we appointed a pilot to head the General Staff. But the Saudis have no experience in such things, they will have to learn it themselves from their mistakes. Yemen is ideal for guerrilla warfare, if not for one problem - a lack of its own food and an even greater lack of water. So, if the Saudis decide on a land invasion and occupation, then they can easily and simply starve and thirst all those they dislike, leaving only a minimum of a loyal population. If the coalition wants a safe passage across the strait, the Saudis need to take on a role similar to the Americans in Iraq or Afghanistan. The Saudis face huge costs, which will be partially offset or even offset by rising oil prices without a reduction in production, as a result of concerns among oil traders and consumers about the escalation of the conflict near an important transportation route. Meanwhile, after a slight increase in oil prices immediately after the outbreak of hostilities, they fell again. So the impact of the Yemen conflict on the global economy turned out to be overestimated.

Everyone needs a safe strait, a route from Europe to Southeast Asia - the Arab states, Europe, and Asians. The conflict in Yemen itself is quite insignificant in its scale and consequences. If navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is not under threat, then events in Yemen will very soon disappear from the news columns of the world's most influential media. Achieving security for the strait by force is easier than bringing to power in Yemen a loyal and stable government that reliably controls most of the country’s territory.
The Big Players distanced themselves a bit. The USA and Britain do not bomb anyone themselves, which is even surprising. At the same time, of course, one cannot deny the significant role of the United States in direct support of Saudi Arabia. But for them, Yemen is also not something worth paying with the lives of their soldiers. The United States has given this country to be torn to pieces by everyone. Why the Americans brought the virus of color revolutions to a poor country remains a mystery. Perhaps they were just conducting an experiment. It is possible that the virus was introduced accidentally by professional revolutionaries from North Africa.
Russia could use the situation to complicate life and teach the monkey-brazen and openly hostile Saudis a lesson. But today’s Russia will not agree to this. The USSR would be capable of intervening in the conflict. The Houthis would be very happy with any Russian weapons, first of all mobile air defense systems, and then anti-tank systems. But they have nothing to pay for such weapons. And you can’t prepare an air defense crew in a month, and whether Yemen will continue to exist is doubtful.

Iran is a different matter. Iran is ready to buy weapons, is ready to supply weapons to its allies, and send advisers and instructors. But Iran's resources are not unlimited; it is already bogged down head over heels in Iraq. Thus, Iran is capable of stirring up the waters, but it is not capable of winning a battle against Saudi Arabia and its many allies. But if, in order to annoy the Saudis, stupid Yemenis who are useless and incapable of living peacefully for ten years in a row are wasted, then who will feel sorry for them?
Thus, the future of poor and restless Yemen, in my opinion, is sad:
Yemen will be torn into at least two parts, or even three or four. Hunger and thirst and a low-intensity war will greatly reduce the number of Yemenis, which all neighbors will be happy about. In the southwestern part of the country, most likely, with the hands of the Arab coalition, a regime loyal to Saudi Arabia will be installed, which itself will exterminate other, unwanted Yemenis. There will never be peace and prosperity in Yemen, but the world community will quickly become bored with news headlines from this region, and for all of us the Yemen conflict will cease to exist.

Therefore, there will be no big Middle East war?

No, there will be no big war. So-so local uninteresting mess - practical exercises of the new military alliance, the Arab “NATO” under the leadership of the Saudis, to practice interaction and combat coordination at the Yemeni training ground.

How likely is this conflict to escalate from local to regional?

The full involvement of almost all Sunni Muslim countries in the region occurred from the first days of the conflict - this is the whole point of the new military alliance - to rush at the enemy in a crowd at the command “Fas!” The land phase, in my opinion, is inevitable. This war is purely local, and will remain so.

What is Israel's role in this conflict, given its status in the region and the involvement of "sworn friends" on all sides of this confrontation?

Israel has nothing to do with it. If you sit by the river for a long time and look at the water, you can see how the current carries the corpse of your enemy. There are a lot of corpses coming through now. Sitting by the river and looking at the water is no longer boring. The Arabs do a great job on their own.

How can events in the Middle East affect, for example, here, in the rebel republics of Donbass and in the region as a whole?

No way - this is a long-standing, boring and uninteresting local tradition of slaughtering non-believers. Each region has its own unique, glorious and no less ancient traditions of this kind. I think you need to focus on your problems. Let them frolic.

Ravid Gor

In Yemen, Iran-backed Shiite Houthi rebels and Yemeni army soldiers who have gone over to their side are seizing more and more territories, primarily in the largest port city of Aden, despite attacks on their formations by the aviation and naval forces of the “Sunni” coalition of Muslim states that have been going on for almost the second week. led by Saudi Arabia. More than 600 people have already died as a result of fighting and shelling. International organizations are warning about the threat of a humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen and, so far not very successfully, are trying to provide assistance to the civilian population. On April 8, the situation in Yemen will be discussed at a meeting of the UN Security Council, which will consider a resolution to resolve the conflict proposed by Russia. At the same time, Saudi Arabia suspects Russia of supporting the Houthis and supplying them with weapons.

Well-armed units of the Houthis and their allies continue to attack the positions of the few supporters of the current president Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who fled the country, in whose hands several blocks of the main port city of Aden and a number of other cities and objects in the very south of the country, on the shores of the Indian Ocean, remain. The sea piers and port of Aden, where the heaviest fighting is taking place, are constantly changing hands, the Yemeni Foreign Minister said Riad Yassin Abdullah:

“Our biggest problem is no longer the Houthis. They are just rebels, there are not that many of them, and they are armed only with light weapons, which, as you know, every Yemeni owns. However, army units that deserted and again declared themselves supporters of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was overthrown in 2011, having tanks and artillery, and in general all possible heavy weapons, are the main threat. We are trying to avoid a full-scale civil war. There is no place for former President Saleh and his family in the future of our country, this is clear - after what he did to our people. Troops loyal to President Mansour Hadi could start a terrible war of destruction - but we don't want that!

Over the past two days, aircraft from Saudi Arabia and its allies have carried out about a hundred strikes on at least 20 targets in territory controlled by the Houthis, who, despite the opinion of the Yemeni minister, are recognized by the coalition as the main enemy - including the capital Sanaa and the main ideological stronghold rebels in the north, the city of Saada, which was the religious center of Yemen's Zaydism for more than 1,200 years, of which the Houthis have become the armed wing today. Saudi coalition aircraft also began parachuting weapons and ammunition to Mansour Hadi's supporters.

In turn, the Houthis have managed to shoot down two Saudi F-15 fighter jets since the start of air strikes. The crew of the first plane was killed, and the pilots of the second destroyed plane were picked up from the water in the Gulf of Aden by the American military. According to unconfirmed reports, on Monday, despite early assurances from Washington that the US military was not involved in the conflict in Yemen, a cruise missile from a US warship struck rebel positions near Aden on Monday.

The Houthi leadership stated that it was ready to sit down at the negotiating table to resolve the conflict with members of the coalition led by Saudi Arabia at any time after the cessation of airstrikes on their part and at the same time about their readiness to retaliate against Saudi Arabia if the shelling of Yemen continues.

The International Red Cross calls on all fighting parties to declare a truce for at least 24 hours in order to deliver aid to the civilian population, who are left without drinking water, food, electricity and medicine in many areas of Yemen. A Red Cross plane carrying 48 tons of medical supplies is unable to enter the country due to coordination problems and the lack of combatant permission to fly and land. Other international official and non-governmental humanitarian organizations are also making proposals to declare a truce. Tens of thousands of children, as always, find themselves in a particularly dangerous situation, a UNICEF representative stressed on Tuesday Christophe Bullera:

“Yemeni children are chronically vulnerable in every aspect—whether we're talking about poor nutrition, lack of access to health care, or whatever. Since the outbreak of violence in Yemen, humanitarian infrastructure has been severely damaged, with hospitals and schools lying in ruins. And therefore, in the near future, in principle, this is already happening; we will face a lot of so-called “indirect deaths” - from the lack of proper medical care. And I must also mention psycho-emotional trauma and its consequences, this is completely obvious!

The situation in Yemen is becoming more difficult and confusing every day, as armed clashes here occur not only between opponents and supporters of President Hadi. Vast territories in the center and east of Yemen are controlled by the Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Ansar al-Sharia and the Islamic State militants who recently appeared here, following Libya, and are considered by the West as the most dangerous force in this conflict. and fighting both against the Houthis and government forces. According to some reports, all radical Islamists in Yemen have established strong ties with both the Al-Shabaab group operating in neighboring Somalia, which just carried out a brutal attack on a student campus in Kenya, and with the Nigerian Boko Haram.

In addition, the civil war in Yemen has long gone beyond the borders of the state and has turned into a smoldering fuse of a bomb capable of blowing up the entire region - at any moment they can directly intervene in the situation or even be drawn in against their will, according to the “domino effect” principle, many parties, including the armed forces of rival states and their allies, from Iran, Pakistan and Turkey to various rebel groups throughout the Middle East and North Africa, for example, the Lebanese Hezbollah or the Iraqi Shiites, who have already declared their readiness come to the aid of “Yemeni brothers in faith.”

On April 7, the Yemeni conflict was discussed by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had previously categorically fully supported the actions of Saudi Arabia and stated: “Iran and terrorist groups should get out of Yemen.” The details of their conversation are not yet known, although in a joint statement to the press, Rouhani and Erdogan made the standard statements about the need to stop the violence and begin to solve the problem at the negotiating table. The fighting in Yemen has become the second armed conflict, increasingly aggravating relations between Ankara and Tehran - after the war in Syria, which, according to the leadership of Turkey and Iran, should be ended in completely different ways.

The Iraqi government, which is heavily dependent on help from both the United States and Iran in its difficult fight against the Sunni extremist group Islamic State, has to make a very difficult choice today - which of the parties involved in the Yemen conflict will ultimately support. Pakistan, an old ally of Saudi Arabia in the Muslim world, whose population is majority Sunni, finds itself in a similarly difficult situation. If it refuses to provide its military contingent to participate in the increasingly likely ground operation of the Saudi coalition in Yemen, official Islamabad risks incurring the discontent of Riyadh, which threatens to cancel the supply of petroleum products at very preferential prices, and the wrath of numerous and influential Sunni religious groups in Pakistan itself. Last year, Saudi Arabia's financial assistance to Pakistan exceeded $1.5 billion. In addition, the current Prime Minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, has clearly not forgotten that after his overthrow by the military in 1999, it was Riyadh that provided him with refuge.

However, the Pakistani army, most of which is always forced to be stationed in the east of the country, along the border with India, its “historic rival,” today has difficulty coping with extremists, primarily the Taliban, in its homeland. If it finds itself drawn into another conflict, it may simply not be able to withstand the tension - which threatens the country with many dangers, including the attempt of another military coup. In addition, such a step will lead to a sharp deterioration of relations with neighboring Iran.

On Wednesday, April 8, the UN Security Council will consider the situation in Yemen at a special meeting, in particular the draft resolution proposed by Moscow on the introduction of so-called “humanitarian pauses” between air raids of the Saudi coalition. The Russian proposal was a response to a draft resolution of the Gulf Cooperation Council that would impose sanctions and an arms embargo on the Houthis and their allies. At the same time, Yemeni Foreign Minister Riyad Yassin Abdullah recently said that planes from Russia that arrived in Yemen last weekend to evacuate Russian and a number of foreign citizens allegedly had weapons on board that ended up with the Houthis. Critics of Moscow's foreign policy point out that every day the Yemen conflict threatens oil supplies from across the Middle East, keeps prices on world oil markets from falling further - and therefore Russia, in its current position, is extremely profitable for a war in the southern Arabian Peninsula lasted as long as possible.

Last updated: 03/27/2015

On Thursday, which seized power in the republic. Airstrikes were carried out on rebel positions on March 26 and 27, killing about a hundred people. Riyadh does not exclude that the operation may move into the ground phase. “We cannot achieve our goals of returning a legitimate government to power through control of the skies over Yemen. A ground operation may be needed to restore order (in Yemen),” a Saudi military source said.

Which countries are involved in the operation?

In addition to Saudi Arabia, the anti-Houthi coalition includes:

According to Ambassador of Saudi Arabia to the United States Adel al-Jubeir, international forces are ready to send “100 fighter jets and more than 150 thousand troops” against the Houthis.

Why would Saudi Arabia get involved in the conflict in Yemen?

Representatives of Saudi Arabia say they are acting at the request of the fugitive former Yemeni President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi. The goal of the operation is “the fight against international terrorism” and “restoration of legitimate power” in the republic. However, according to experts, Saudi Arabia had other motives for getting involved in this conflict.

“There are three reasons why Riyadh is acting so decisively. The first is that the Houthi uprising is a direct source of increasing instability in Saudi Arabia itself, where they fear their own similar scenario. The fact is that the activity of Shiites in Saudi Arabia, of whom there are 14-15% of the total population, was finally suppressed in 2011 during the “Arab Spring,” said AiF.ru Leading Researcher at the Institute of International Security Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexey Fenenko. “Now they have many restrictions, for example, they do not have legal representation in government. However, they have not fully accepted their defeat and at any moment can create serious problems for the government. Especially if they begin to actively interact with Iran. This Shiite state is the second reason for Saudi Arabia’s active intervention in the conflict, because Riyadh and Tehran are the main forces and main rivals in the Middle East. And recently, Iran has increasingly begun to mention that its armed forces are significantly superior to the armies of other countries in the region. And the third reason is the oil factor. Yemen is home to the oil port of Aden, which is key to hydrocarbon transit in the Middle East. In addition, Aden is also the gateway to the Red Sea, through which oil supplies flow through the Suez Canal. Well, don’t forget about the oil fields in the north of Yemen, the ownership of which would be very profitable for Saudi Arabia.”

Who are the Houthis and what are they trying to achieve?

The Houthis are a Shiite militant group operating in Yemen. Named after its founder and former leader Hussein al-Houthi, who was killed by government forces in September 2004. After the death of al-Houthi, leadership of the group passed to his brother Abdel-Malik al-Houthi.

The Houthis believe that Yemen's Sunni majority, which has been in power for the past decades, is ignoring the interests of the Shiite minority, who live mainly in the north of the country. The group seeks:

increasing the representation of Shiites in government,
redistribution of income from the sale of hydrocarbons in favor of the Shiites.

How did the Houthis react to the start of the military operation?

One of the Houthi leaders Mohammed al-Bukhaiti told Al Jazeera that Saudi Arabia’s actions constitute “aggression” and will “receive a harsh rebuff.”

How did the conflict between the Houthis and the Yemeni government develop?

In 2004, Imam Hussein al-Houthi launched an anti-government rebellion, accusing the Yemeni authorities of discrimination against the Shiite population. In 2009, with the support of Saudi Arabia, government troops suppressed this protest. In February 2010, a ceasefire agreement was signed between the Houthis and the Yemeni authorities.

In 2011, after the start of protests against the regime in the country President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Houthis have expanded their influence in northern Yemen. They began an armed struggle not only against government forces, but also against other non-Shiite Islamic groups, such as the al-Islah movement, the confederation of Hashid tribes, al-Qaeda militants and the associated group Ansar al-Sharia.

In August 2014, the Houthis began holding mass demonstrations in the northern and central regions of the country. By mid-September 2014, the Houthis had captured several areas of the capital Sanaa, including a number of government institutions.

On September 21, 2014, the Houthis and the Yemeni government, through UN mediation, signed an agreement, one of the conditions of which was the resignation of the government Muhammad Basindwa. On October 13, 2014, he was appointed Prime Minister Khalid Mahfuz Bahah, whose candidacy was approved by the Houthis.

In December 2014, despite the peace agreement signed in September, the Houthis continued their armed struggle, taking control of the cities of Arhab and Hodeidah, as well as the buildings of the state oil company Safer Petroleum and the state newspaper Al-Thawra in Sanaa.

On January 19, 2015, the Houthis attacked the motorcade of Prime Minister Khalid Mahfouz Bahah and seized the state television building in Sana'a. After several hours of fighting, a ceasefire agreement was reached, which was violated the very next day. On January 20, 2015, the Houthis captured the intelligence building and the presidential residence.

January 22 President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi submitted his resignation. Members of the government of the republic also sent a request to the head of state for early resignation. Hadi left Yemen on the same day by boat through the port of Aden. The information that the former president of Yemen has left his residence was confirmed by US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki.

On February 5, it became known that the Houthis had adopted a new “constitutional declaration” and that most political forces in Yemen had agreed to create a presidential council that would govern the country for a year. In addition, the Houthis announced the dissolution of the country's House of Representatives and the formation of a government of technocrats. The Revolutionary Committee headed by Muhammad Ali al-Houthi.

On the night of March 26, aircraft of the anti-Houthi coalition carried out airstrikes in Sana'a on the international airport, the presidential residence and air defense positions. Bombs were also dropped on the Yemeni Air Force's Al-Dailami air base. The airstrikes killed dozens of people, including civilians.

Will the US be involved in the conflict?

According to the White House press service, the United States will participate in military operations in Yemen, but not directly. Thus, according to a Reuters source, Riyadh and Washington held consultations at the highest level before a decision was made on a military operation.

Expert: “No one will be able to completely take over this country”

In Yemen, armed confrontation continues to unfold between Houthi rebels and supporters of the country's former President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, which is aggravated by air raids by a coalition of Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia. What is the essence of this intricate conflict and what are its main forces? Why does it affect the interests of Iran and Saudi Arabia? MK tried to figure this out.

Background

The modern history of this Middle Eastern country begins in 1918, when the Ottoman Empire gave power in Northern Yemen to the spiritual leader of the Zaydi tribes (Zaydis are adherents of one of the moderate Shiite sects of Islam). The newly created state had a monarchical structure. At the same time, it was distinguished by its tribal structure. The Zaydis were in power, and the other, larger tribes managed to maintain autonomy from the government. As Russian researchers note, the entire short history of the kingdom is one of bloody clashes between tribes and their clashes with the royal army.

The actual rule of the Zaydis in the northern part lasted until 1962 - until a revolution occurred in the country, as a result of which a republic was proclaimed. However, these changes did not eradicate the tribal structure of Yemeni society. The struggle between royalists and republicans, which continued until the 70s, only strengthened the position of tribal unions, Russian researchers write.

In 1967, South Yemen, a British colony, gained independence and a few years later took a pro-Soviet course. “A Marxist state arose in the south - the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen,” says Professor Georgy Mirsky, chief researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, to MK. “The comrades who studied in our higher party school in Moscow ruled this country, and then they fought and shot each other right at a Politburo meeting, because they were from different tribes. Tribal loyalties proved stronger than Marxism-Leninism. Then the North and South united (1990 - “MK”), and after that there was a short war between them, but separatism remained.”

The next phase of instability for the country was the events of the so-called “Arab Spring” - a series of democratic coups in Middle Eastern countries. As a result of popular protests in Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh was removed, who obviously, like most Arab leaders, aspired to a “lifetime” presidency. At least first, he prepared a constitutional amendment extending the presidential term to 7 years, and then he completely wanted to abolish the limit for re-election to the post of head of state. His place was taken by Abd-Rabbu Mansur Hadi, however, he was forced to resign in January 2015 due to armed clashes in Sana'a. However, then Hadi annulled this decision.

Rebels, government and terrorists

Currently, the main struggle in Yemen is between supporters of ex-President Hadi and the Houthis, a Zaydi armed group called Ansar Allah (Ansarullah). “She waged her struggle for influence back in 2000, becoming the main opponent of Saleh, who, by the way, was also a Zaydi by religion,” says MK. Head of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vasily Kuznetsov.- Here the situation is this: when the national dialogue began after 2011 (the year the “Arab Spring” began - “MK”), Ansarullah was a marginal force in Yemen, but during this national dialogue they managed to strengthen themselves and managed to win a number of major military victories . This is a force that confronts, in particular, al-Qaeda and other jihadist groups."

“On the other hand, we have the Hadi government and government forces that operate in alliance with the Al-Islah organization,” explains Vasily Kuznetsov. - This is a Salafi-oriented organization that has become an ally of Salafi movements. In particular, they sometimes act together with al-Qaeda.

As experts note, al-Qaeda is also one of the important participants in the armed confrontation. “When Osama bin Laden was alive, he created several branches of the group,” Georgy Mirsky tells MK. One of them, Al-Qaeda in Iraq, is now the Islamic State. And the second is Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). He created this branch in order to overthrow the Saudi monarchy. Until the end of his life, bin Laden said that one of the goals of his life was to overthrow this vile and wicked system. But the neighboring state, Yemen, became its base, and it still remains.”

At the same time, other Russian analysts believe that the AQAP threat in Yemen is exaggerated and that the parties to the conflict have a mutual interest in attributing a serious threat to it.

What do Saudi Arabia and Iran have to do with it?

At the end of March, Saudi Arabia, together with a number of Arab countries, announced the start of a military operation in Yemen. In a joint statement, the Gulf Cooperation Council (excluding Oman) said the campaign against the Houthis had been launched at the request of Hadi and his supporters. It is widely believed that the Houthis have support from Iran, a longtime enemy of Saudi Arabia, which is why the monarchy has become involved in an active fight against them. “Saudi Arabia (where the Sunnis are the majority - MK) is afraid that if the Houthis take power in Yemen, it will find itself surrounded by Shiites and that the Houthis would use their connections with Iran to blackmail it,” explains Vasily Kuznetsov to MK . At the same time, the expert notes that perhaps Riyadh does not have a clear explanation as to why exactly this military operation was launched.

“Riyadh still has a fear that Iran will begin to rapprochement with the West, get out of sanctions, and then Iran will objectively turn out to be a regional leader,” says Kuznetsov. - This explains a lot about the politics of Saudi Arabia. In addition, there is, of course, a desire to prove its own capacity as a regional leader and point out that Yemen is a zone of influence of Saudi Arabia... Another point is obvious - that Saudi Arabia is trying to strengthen Arab unity in connection with Yemen. That is, the League of Arab States (LAS) is again beginning to play a certain role. If there is a military operation, who will conduct it? Saudis? Of course, the Egyptians will fight, the same Arab League forces. This gives some impetus to uniting the Arab world on an anti-Iranian basis. Unity is, of course, good, but the anti-Iranian basis is very dangerous.”

According to Kuznetsov, Riyadh has another concern about the conflict in Yemen: “If the Houthis take power, the Saudis are very afraid of the start of Shiite protests inside Saudi Arabia. You know that Saudi Arabia has a Shiite population. There are a little in the south, on the border with Yemen - these are tribes related to the Houthis. They also exist in the eastern province, closer to Iraq, where the main oil deposits are. The Saudis have always feared that this was their fifth column. It is very difficult to say whether these concerns are justified, because there is little “field” research on this matter, but theoretically it is not unfounded.”

“When a complete mess arose inside Yemen as a result of the events of the Arab Spring, AQAP began to gain more and more strength in the country,” Georgy Mirsky told MK. “Then in response to this, Iran began to help the Zaydi Shiites. They began to receive weapons and money. Their enemies are al-Qaeda. And for Saudi Arabia, both are enemies... If the Houthis take control of the country, they will become a satellite of Iran. But they won’t be able to do this, because only 40 percent of the population in Yemen are Shiites, and the rest? We must assume that all the other Sunni tribes will somehow come to their senses and come to their senses, forming a united front.”

"Struggle for power and property"

According to Georgy Mirsky, the internal conflict in Yemen itself does not have a pronounced confessional character, because for many years Shiites and Sunnis lived peacefully in this country. “The religious factor is not so pronounced,” the specialist told MK. - This is not a matter of specific religious or dogmatic contradictions. There are disagreements, but not that important. It is important that each of these communities considers themselves real Muslims. But in fact, this is a struggle for power, a struggle for resources, a struggle for who will be at the top, who will be at the bottom, who will make laws, who will look down on whom.”

“There are several lines of division here,” explains Vasily Kuznetsov to MK. - This is a split between the government and the Houthis, this is a split between North and South, which is now a little masked by these Houthi-government contradictions, but which exists and will worsen again. There is also a conflict simply between tribes and a conflict between elite groups - the al-Ahmar group and the Houthi group. These are the main fault lines in Yemen."

“All these ideological, religious, intertribal contradictions take place, but by and large, everything that happens in the country is a kind of struggle for access to resources,” Kuznetsov also says. - The struggle for power and property, since the country is resource-scarce - in other words, poor. This is on the one hand. On the other hand, there is a huge amount of weapons there. It has been calculated that there are about three times as many weapons as there are people there. All this takes on such an aggravated form. It is clear that each force uses the resources it can turn to to mobilize the population. Or these are confessional resources, that is, confessional slogans addressed, respectively, to Zaydis, Salafis, and so on. Either this is regionalism: North - South, or it is inter-tribal contradictions. The result is a complex mosaic that does not have strict outlines.”

Will Riyadh carry out a ground operation?

It has been reported that Saudi authorities are considering the possibility of conducting a ground operation in Yemen, but what is the likelihood of such a scenario? “Saudi Arabia will not send its ground forces there,” Georgy Mirsky tells MK. - Iran - even more so. Iran will not send any planes or troops. That is, this is a war by proxy, a war of proxies. These are proteges of Saudi Arabia, those of Iran. But sooner or later they will realize that none of them can completely conquer the country.”

“After there was an American ground operation in Iraq, the United States could not leave there for ten years,” recalls Vasily Kuznetsov. “And they still can’t get out of there completely.” And how much money was invested - intellectual, financial, human - to build a new system in Iraq. And still nothing worked out. How will it be here? This was the USA - with its experience, with its capabilities. This is where the ground operation will be - what will be its tasks? Conducting a military operation is a simple matter, although in this case it is not entirely clear - against whom and for what. It is much more difficult to guarantee the subsequent transformation and stabilization of the regime. It doesn’t even matter whether this regime is pro-Saudi or not. This is not explained in any way, and there are great doubts about the fact that there is a clear understanding, including among Saudi Arabia, of these plans. Yes, the Saudis want to demonstrate that this is their zone of influence, okay. But how will they influence? Yemen is a country that needs to be supported. This is a country that cannot exist on its own economically.”

The future of Yemen

“No one will be able to completely master this country,” says Mirsky. - I foresee and can predict that sooner or later everything will return to what it was. Shiites in this country are not as bloodthirsty as in Iraq, for example. In the end, Saleh may return and somehow reconcile everyone. Of course, young people hated him, like Mubarak or, say, Gaddafi. But given what happened after he left, now most people in Yemen, if you ask them, will say: “Let Saleh come back. At least there was calm, there was stability.” And he understands it."

“A new national dialogue should be started there, but it is not clear who will conduct it and how, how to guarantee and ensure it,” Kuznetsov told MK. - There must be some kind of international participation, as there was before. Although it was weak, because international actors who can guarantee national dialogue do not have instruments of influence within the country. This is the first one. The second is that this national dialogue must be inclusive, that is, it must include all forces. This is partly the same problem that we faced in Syria, when our opposition was very fragmented and it was not very clear that the regime should communicate with whom. It’s the same here: who should talk to whom? There must be Houthis, there must be a government, there must be Al-Islah. Who else? How many parties should there be whose opinions should be taken into account? It is clear that the more parties there are, the more difficult it is to negotiate. The third point, very important, is militarization. When there are so many weapons in a country, it is very difficult to agree on anything, because people start shooting at each other just like that. These are the problem areas."