home Drugs Global warming causes and consequences, what it threatens. Global warming. Causes, consequences and solutions

Global warming causes and consequences, what it threatens. Global warming. Causes, consequences and solutions

It all started back in 1975. The world-famous journal Science, in its issue dated August 8, published a rather bold, one might even say revolutionary, article at that time.
It contained assumptions that in the near future the climate on Earth will change dramatically. Even the reasons for these changes were explained - it all lay in human impacts on the Earth's natural resources. This was later called "global warming".

In fact, the term “global warming” itself was established only in July 1988. Its author is believed to be James Hansen, a climate scientist. He used this term publicly for the first time while speaking in the US Senate. His report was then widely covered by many media. Even then, Hansen explained what caused global warming and stated that it had reached a very high level. Although such serious temperature changes as we observe today, of course, did not exist then, stopping global warming at that moment would have been the smartest thing to do.

What is global warming

In short, this is a gradual, progressive increase in the average temperature of the Earth. Today this is already such an obvious fact that even the most conservative skeptic cannot argue with. Almost all modern scientists admit this. Facts show that over the past decades, the average temperature of our planet has increased by 0.8 degrees. This number may seem insignificant to the average person. But in reality this is far from the case.

Also noteworthy is the fact that the increase in the Earth's temperature occurs unevenly in different parts of the planet. For example, in many equatorial countries the temperature has increased slightly. While in Russia and other countries located at the same latitudes, the increase in average temperature was 1.3 degrees. This became especially noticeable in the winter months.

What is the reason for such global changes?

Most scientists agree that the main cause of global warming is human activity. Just a few hundred years ago, humanity was primarily engaged in cattle breeding and agriculture. Not many minerals were mined then, and in general there was virtually no harm done to the environment. But everything changed with the advent of the so-called industrial revolution. The extraction of Earth's resources, such as coal, crude oil, and later natural gas, has increased significantly. Today, plants, factories and other enterprises that are familiar to modern people emit an average of 22 billion (!) tons of harmful emissions per year into the atmosphere. These emissions include, among others, methane, carbon dioxide, and other greenhouse gases. Approximately 50 percent of these gases, which are unnecessary for humans, remain in the Earth's atmosphere, causing the greenhouse effect. Ozone holes also contribute.

The ozone layer in the atmosphere is located at a distance of 15-20 kilometers from the Earth's surface. And if just a hundred years ago this layer was unharmed and reliably protected the planet from the harmful effects of solar rays, today this is no longer the case. But due to harmful emissions from the same plants and factories, chemical elements such as bromine, hydrogen and chlorine began to enter the atmosphere, which began to destroy the ozone layer.

At first it became thinner, and in 1985 the first hole with a diameter of approximately one kilometer appeared over Antarctica. Later, such holes appeared over the Arctic. Undoubtedly, this has led to the fact that ultraviolet radiation is no longer retained in the atmosphere properly, warming the Earth's surface even more. The already serious situation is further aggravated by the fact that in many countries of the world, massive deforestation has been going on for many years. Pursuing commercial interests, humanity forgets that it is actually destroying the “lungs” of our planet. The fewer forests that are capable of absorbing carbon dioxide, the more of this gas remains in the atmosphere, thereby only increasing the greenhouse effect.

Some scientists, especially specialists in the agricultural sector, believe that the main cause of global warming is the increased number of cattle in recent years. In their opinion, today humanity is breeding so many cows, sheep, horses and other animals than ever before. And, as you know, the product of processing agricultural feed by these animals, in other words, manure, also releases a significant amount of methane into the atmosphere when decomposed. And although another group of scientists is quite skeptical about this version, the number of supporters of this theory is steadily growing. And, of course, a huge number of cars on all continents together produce a significant amount of exhaust gases, which also enter the atmosphere. And it seems that the growing production of “eco-friendly” electric vehicles is not yet able to completely solve this problem.

What are the consequences of global warming?

The most dangerous thing that threatens us is the melting of glaciers in the Arctic in the world. It has been noticed that, especially in recent years, glaciers are melting at a record speed. A number of respected and world-famous scientists are convinced that many Arctic ice sheets will melt much sooner than previously thought. And the less ice remains on the surface of the Earth, the less ultraviolet radiation coming from the Sun will be reflected from our planet. Consequently, the Earth's surface will warm up even more, which will only exacerbate the melting of new glaciers. But from this problem comes the next one - rising sea levels. According to the observations of scientists in different countries, the level of the world's seas is rising by 3.2 millimeters per year. If this trend continues and grows, then some experts predict a rise in the level of the world's oceans by 0.5-2.0 meters in the near future.

But today you can increasingly hear on TV about how some coastal areas and even entire islands are disappearing under water. For example, an island in the Bay of Bengal, which for many years was considered a disputed territory between countries such as Bangladesh and India, was completely flooded. In Bangladesh it was called South Talpatti Island, while in India, which considered it its own, it was called New Moore Island. When the island completely went under water, the territorial dispute was simply settled. And the reason for this is global warming.

In many countries, roads, residential buildings, and agricultural areas have gone under water in the coastal zone. People were forced to move the entire infrastructure inland or build dams. Due to flooded houses in some countries, so-called “climate migrants” have appeared. Also, many diseases that previously lived in extremely hot countries are increasingly being recorded in more northern latitudes. It is obvious that global climate change has significantly affected our lives.

In the last two decades, especially in the developed countries of the world, many summits have been held aimed at preventing global warming. But many scientists are firmly convinced of one thing: even if radical actions are now taken on a global scale to eliminate the causes causing the increase in the average temperature of the Earth, the process will still not be stopped. And whether global warming will cause irreparable consequences for humanity, time will tell.

Global warming was once a fancy term used by scientists who were increasingly concerned about the effects of pollution on long-term weather patterns. Today, the idea of global warming on earth is well known, but not entirely understood.
It's not unusual for someone to complain about a hot day and remark, "It's global warming."

Well, is that so? In this article we will learn what global warming is, what causes it, what the current and possible future consequences are. While there is a scientific consensus on global warming, some aren't sure it's something we need to worry about.

We'll look at some of the proposed changes being made by scientists related to curbing global warming and the criticisms and concerns surrounding it.

Global warming is a significant increase in the temperature of the Earth over a relatively short period of time as a result of human activities.

In particular, an increase of 1 or more degrees Celsius over a period of one hundred to two hundred years will be considered as global warming of the Earth. Over the course of one century, an increase of even 0.4 degrees Celsius would be significant.

To understand what this means, let's start by looking at the difference between weather and climate.

What is weather and climate

The weather is local and short-term. If snow falls in the city where you live next Tuesday, it's the weather.

Climate is long-term and does not apply to one small location. An area's climate is the average weather conditions in a region over a long period of time.

If the part you live in has cold winters with a lot of snow, that's the climate for the region you live in. We know, for example, that in some areas the winters were cold and snowy, so we know what to expect.

It's important to understand that when we talk about long-term climate, we really mean long-term. Even a few hundred years is pretty short term when it comes to climate. In fact, sometimes it takes tens of thousands of years. This means that if you are lucky enough to have a winter that is not as cold as usual, with little snow, or even two or three such winters in a row, it is not climate change. It is simply an anomaly—an event that falls outside the normal statistical range but does not represent any consistent long-term change.

Facts about global warming

It is also important to understand and know the facts about global warming as even small changes in climate can have serious consequences.

Natural climate changes

Scientists have determined that it takes thousands of years for the Earth to naturally warm or cool 1 degree. In addition to the repeating cycles of the Ice Age, Earth's climate can change due to volcanic activity, differences in plant life, changes in the amount of radiation from the sun, and natural changes in atmospheric chemistry.

Global warming on Earth is caused by an increase in the greenhouse effect.

The greenhouse effect itself allows our planet to remain warm enough for life.

While it's not a perfect analogy, you can think of the Earth as your car parked on a sunny day. You've probably noticed that the inside of a car is always much hotter than the temperature outside if the car has been sitting in the sun for a while. The sun's rays penetrate through the car windows. Some of the heat from the sun is absorbed by the seats, dashboard, carpeting and floor mats. When these objects release this heat, it doesn't all escape through the windows. Some heat is reflected back. The heat emitted by the seats is a different wavelength than the sunlight that entered through the windows in the first place.

So a certain amount of energy comes in and less energy goes out. The result is a gradual increase in temperature inside the car.

The essence of the greenhouse effect

The greenhouse effect and its essence are much more complex than the temperature in the sun inside the car. When the sun's rays hit the Earth's atmosphere and surface, approximately 70 percent of the energy remains on the planet, absorbed by the land, oceans, plants and other things. The remaining 30 percent is reflected in space by clouds, snow fields and other reflective surfaces. But even the 70 percent that passes does not remain on the earth forever (otherwise the earth will become a blazing fireball). The Earth's oceans and land masses eventually radiate heat. Some of this heat ends up in space. The rest is absorbed and ends up in certain parts of the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide, methane gas and water vapor. These components in our atmosphere absorb all the heat that they emit. Heat that does not penetrate the Earth's atmosphere keeps the planet warmer than in outer space because more energy enters through the atmosphere than exits. This is the essence of the greenhouse effect, which keeps the earth warm.

Earth without greenhouse effect

What would the Earth look like if there were no greenhouse effect at all? It will likely be very similar to Mars. Mars doesn't have a thick enough atmosphere to reflect enough heat back to the planet, so it gets very cold there.

Some scientists have suggested that if implemented, we could terraform the surface of Mars by sending out "factories" that would spew water vapor and carbon dioxide into the air. If enough material can be created, the atmosphere can begin to thicken enough to retain more heat and allow plants to live on the surface. Once plants spread across Mars, they would begin to produce oxygen. In a few hundred or thousand years, Mars may actually have an environment where humans can simply walk, thanks to the greenhouse effect.

The greenhouse effect occurs due to certain natural substances in the atmosphere. Unfortunately, humans have been pouring huge amounts of these substances into the air since the Industrial Revolution. The main ones are carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a colorless gas that is a by-product of combustion of organic matter. It makes up less than 0.04 percent of Earth's atmosphere, most of which was deposited by volcanic activity very early in the planet's life. Today, human activity is pumping huge volumes of CO2 into the atmosphere, leading to an overall increase in carbon dioxide concentrations. These elevated concentrations are considered a major contributor to global warming because carbon dioxide absorbs infrared radiation. Most of the energy that leaves Earth's atmosphere comes in this form, so extra CO2 means more energy absorption and an overall rise in the planet's temperature.

Carbon dioxide concentrations measured at Earth's largest volcano Mauna Loa, Hawaii reports that carbon dioxide emissions worldwide have increased from about 1 billion tons in 1900 to about 7 billion tons in 1995. also notes that the average temperature of the Earth's surface increased from 14.5 degrees C in 1860 to 15.3 degrees C in 1980.

The pre-industrial amount of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere was about 280 parts per million, which means that for every million molecules of dry air, 280 of them were CO2. In contrast to the 2017 level, CO2 share is 379 mg.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is another important greenhouse gas. Although the amounts released by human activity are not as large as the amount of CO2, nitrous oxide absorbs much more energy than CO2 (about 270 times more). For this reason, efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions also focus on N2O. Using large amounts of nitrogen fertilizer on crops releases nitrous oxide in large quantities and is also a byproduct of combustion.

Methane is a flammable gas and is the main component of natural gas. Methane occurs naturally through the decomposition of organic material and is often found as “swamp gas.”

Man-made processes produce methane in several ways:

By extracting it from coal
From large herds of livestock (i.e. digestive gases)
From bacteria in rice fields
Decomposition of waste in landfills

Methane acts in the same way as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, absorbing infrared energy and storing thermal energy on Earth. The concentration of methane in the atmosphere in 2005 was 1,774 parts per billion. Although there is not as much methane in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, methane can absorb and release twenty times more heat than CO2. Some scientists even suggest that large-scale release of methane into the atmosphere (for example, due to the release of huge chunks of methane ice trapped beneath the oceans) could have created the short periods of intense global warming that led to some of the mass extinctions in the planet's distant past.

Carbon dioxide and methane concentrations

Concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane in 2017 exceeded their natural limits over the past 650,000 years. Much of this increase in concentration is due to the burning of fossil fuels.

Scientists know that an average drop of just 5 degrees Celsius over thousands of years could trigger an ice age.

If the temperature increases

So what would happen if the Earth's average temperature increased by a few degrees in just a few hundred years? There is no clear answer. Even short-term weather forecasts are never completely accurate because weather is a complex phenomenon. When it comes to long-term climate forecasts, all we can manage are guesses based on knowledge of climate through history.

However, it can be stated that Glaciers and ice shelves around the world are melting. The loss of large areas of surface ice could accelerate Earth's global warming because less energy from the sun would be reflected. The immediate result of melting glaciers will be rising sea levels. Initially, sea level rise will be only 3-5 centimeters. Even a small rise in sea level can cause flooding problems in low-lying coastal areas. However, if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melts and collapses into the sea, it will raise sea levels by 10 meters and many coastal areas will disappear completely under the ocean.

Research Projections Show Sea Level Rise

Scientists estimate that sea levels rose by 17 centimeters in the 20th century. Scientists predict sea levels will rise throughout the 21st century, with levels rising between 17 and 50 centimeters by 2100. Scientists cannot yet address changes in ice flow in these forecasts due to a lack of scientific data. Sea levels are likely to be higher than the forecast range, but we can't be sure how much until more data is collected on the effects of global warming on ice flows.

As overall ocean temperatures rise, ocean storms such as tropical storms and hurricanes, which derive their fierce and destructive energy from the warm waters they pass through, may increase in strength.

If rising temperatures affect glaciers and ice shelves, could the polar ice caps be at risk of melting and rising oceans?

Impact of water vapor and other greenhouse gases

Water vapor is the most common greenhouse gas, but it is most often the result of climate change rather than anthropogenic emissions. Water or moisture on the Earth's surface absorbs heat from the sun and the environment. When enough heat has been absorbed, some of the liquid molecules may have enough energy to evaporate and begin to rise into the atmosphere as vapor. As the steam rises higher and higher, the temperature of the surrounding air becomes lower and lower. Eventually, the steam loses enough heat to the surrounding air to allow it to return to the liquid. The gravitational pull of the earth then causes the liquid to "fall" downwards, completing the cycle. This cycle is also called "positive feedback."

Water vapor is harder to measure than other greenhouse gases, and scientists aren't sure exactly what role it plays in Earth's global warming. Scientists believe there is a correlation between the increase in carbon dioxide in our atmosphere and the increase in water vapor.

As water vapor increases in the atmosphere, more of it ends up condensing into clouds, which are more able to reflect solar radiation (allowing less energy to reach the earth's surface and warm it).

Are the polar ice caps in danger of melting and rising oceans? It might happen, but no one knows when it might happen.

The earth's main ice sheet is Antarctica at the South Pole, which contains about 90 percent of the world's ice and 70 percent of its fresh water. Antarctica is covered with ice averaging 2133 m thick.

If all the ice in Antarctica melts, sea levels around the world will rise by about 61 meters. But the average air temperature in Antarctica is -37 ° C, so the ice there is not in danger of melting.

On the other side of the world, at the North Pole, the ice is not as thick as at the South Pole. Ice floats in the Arctic Ocean. If it melts, sea level will not be affected.

There is a significant amount of ice covering Greenland, which would add another 7 meters to the oceans if it melted. Because Greenland is closer to the equator than Antarctica, temperatures are higher there, so the ice is likely to melt. University scientists say ice loss in Antarctica and Greenland combined accounts for about 12 percent of sea level rise.

But there may be a less dramatic reason for higher sea levels than melting polar ice: higher water temperatures.

Water is most dense at 4 degrees Celsius.

Above and below this temperature, the density of water decreases (the same weight of water takes up more space). As the overall temperature of water increases, it naturally expands slightly causing the oceans to rise.

Less dramatic changes would occur around the world as average temperatures would increase. Temperate climates with four seasons will have a longer growing season with more rainfall. This can be useful in many ways for these areas. However, less temperate areas of the world are likely to see rising temperatures and sharp declines in precipitation, leading to prolonged droughts and potentially creating deserts.

Because Earth's climate is so complex, no one is sure how much climate change in one region will affect other regions. Some scientists theorize that decreasing sea ice in the Arctic could reduce snowfall because Arctic cold fronts will be less intense. This could affect everything from farmland to the ski industry.

What are the consequences

The most devastating effects of global warming, and also the most difficult to predict, are the responses of the world's living ecosystems. Many ecosystems are very delicate, and the slightest change can kill several species, as well as any other species that depend on them. Most ecosystems are interconnected, so the chain reaction of impacts can be immeasurable. The results could be something like a forest gradually dying off into grassland or entire coral reefs dying.

Many plant and animal species have adapted to cope with climate change, but many have gone extinct.

Some ecosystems are already changing dramatically due to climate change. American climate scientists report that much of what was once tundra in Northern Canada is turning into forests. They also noticed that the transition from tundra to forest is not linear. Instead, the change seems to occur in fits and starts.

The human costs and consequences of global warming are difficult to quantify. Thousands of lives a year can be lost as the elderly or sick suffer from heatstroke and other heat-related injuries. Poor and underdeveloped countries will suffer the worst consequences as they will not have the financial resources to deal with rising temperatures. Huge numbers of people could die from starvation if reduced rainfall limits crop growth and from disease if coastal flooding leads to widespread waterborne disease.

It is estimated that farmers lose about 40 million tons of grains like wheat, barley and corn every year. Scientists have found that an increase in average temperature of 1 degree leads to a decrease in yield by 3-5%.

Is global warming a real problem?

Despite the scientific consensus on the issue, some people don't think global warming is happening at all. There are several reasons for this:

They don't think the data shows a measurable upward trend in global temperatures, either because we don't have enough long-term historical climate data or because the data we do have isn't clear enough.

Some scientists believe the data is being misinterpreted by people already concerned about global warming. That is, these people are looking for evidence of global warming in statistics, rather than looking at the evidence objectively and trying to understand what it means.

Some argue that any increase in global temperatures we are seeing could be natural climate change, or it could be due to factors other than greenhouse gases.

Most scientists accept that global warming appears to be happening on Earth, but some don't believe it's a big deal. These scientists say the Earth is more resilient to climate change on this scale than we think. Plants and animals will adapt to subtle shifts in weather patterns, and it is unlikely that anything catastrophic will happen as a result of global warming. Slightly longer growing seasons, changes in precipitation levels and stronger weather are generally not catastrophic, they say. They also argue that the economic damage caused by reducing greenhouse gas emissions will be far more detrimental to humans than any of the effects of global warming.

In some ways, scientific consensus can be controversial. The real power to effect significant change lies in the hands of those who make national and global policies. Policymakers in many countries are reluctant to propose and implement changes because they feel the costs may outweigh any risks associated with global warming.

Some common climate policy issues:

Changing carbon emissions and production policies could lead to job losses.
India and China, which continue to rely heavily on coal as their main source of energy, will continue to cause environmental problems.

Because scientific evidence is about probabilities rather than certainties, we cannot be sure that human behavior is contributing to global warming, that our contribution is significant, or that we can do anything to correct it.

Some believe that technology will find a way to get us out of the global warming mess, so any changes to our policies will ultimately be unnecessary and cause more harm than good.

What's the correct answer? This may be difficult to understand. Most scientists will tell you that global warming is real and that it will likely cause some harm, but the scale of the problem and the dangers posed by its effects are widely open to debate.

This is the increase in average temperature on Earth due to greenhouse gas emissions: methane, carbon dioxide, water vapor. Some scientists believe that this is the fault of industry: manufacturing and cars generate emissions. They absorb some of the infrared radiation coming from the Earth. Due to the retained energy, the atmosphere layer and the surface of the planet are heated.

Global warming will lead to the melting of glaciers, and they, in turn, will raise the level of the World Ocean. Photo: depositphotos

However, there is another theory: global warming is a natural process. After all, nature itself also produces greenhouse gases: during volcanic eruptions, there is a colossal release of carbon dioxide, permafrost, or more precisely, the soil in permafrost regions releases methane, and so on.

The problem of warming was discussed back in the last century. In theory it leads to the flooding of many coastal cities, severe storms, heavy rainfall and long droughts, which will result in problems with agriculture. And mammals will migrate, and some species may become extinct in the process.

Is there warming in Russia?

Scientists are still debating whether warming has begun. Meanwhile, Russia is heating up. According to Roshydrometcenter data from 2014, the average temperature in European territory is rising faster than others. And this happens in all seasons except winter.

The temperature rises most rapidly (0.052 °C/year) in the northern and European territories of Russia. This is followed by Eastern Siberia (0.050 °C/year), Central Siberia (0.043), Amur and Primorye (0.039), Baikal and Transbaikalia (0.032), Western Siberia (0.029 °C/year). Of the federal districts, the highest rates of temperature increase are in the Central, the lowest in the Siberian (0.059 and 0.030 °C/year, respectively). Image: WWF

“Russia remains the part of the world where climate warming during the 21st century will significantly exceed average global warming,” the agency’s report says.

Many scientists believe that it is more correct to track global warming through the oceans. Judging by our seas, it has begun: the average temperature of the Black Sea is rising by 0.08°C per year, the average temperature of the Azov Sea - by 0.07°C. In the White Sea, the temperature rises by 2.1°C per year.

Despite the fact that water and air temperatures are rising, experts are in no hurry to call it global warming.

“The fact of global warming has not yet been reliably established,” says Evgeny Zubko, associate professor at the School of Natural Sciences at the Far Eastern Federal University. - Temperature changes are the result of the simultaneous action of several processes. Some lead to warming, others to cooling.”

One of these processes is a decline in solar activity, which leads to significant cooling. There will be thousands of times fewer sunspots than usual, this happens once every 300-400 years. This phenomenon is called minimum solar activity. According to the forecasts of scientists from Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov, the decline will continue from 2030 to 2040.

Has the belt movement begun?

Climatic zones are areas with stable weather, elongated horizontally. There are seven of them: equatorial, tropical, temperate, polar, subequatorial, subtropical and subpolar. Our country is large, it is surrounded by arctic, subarctic, temperate and subtropical regions.

Climatic zones of the Earth according to B. P. Alisov. Image: Kliimavöötmed

“There is a possibility of the belts moving and, moreover, the shift is already underway,” says expert Evgeniy Zubko. What does it mean? Due to the displacement, warm edges will become colder and vice versa.

In Vorkuta (Arctic zone) green grass will grow, winters will be warmer, summers will be hotter. At the same time, it will get colder in the area of Sochi and Novorossiysk (subtropics). Winters will not be as mild as they are now, when snow falls and children are allowed to stay away from school. Summer won't be that long.

“The most striking example of belt shifts is the “offensive” of deserts,” says the climatologist. This is an increase in the area of deserts due to human activity - intensive ploughing. Residents of such places have to move, cities disappear, as does the local fauna.

At the end of the last century, the Aral Sea, located in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, began to dry up. The rapidly growing Aralkum desert is approaching it. The fact is that in Soviet times, a lot of water was drained from the two rivers that feed the sea for cotton plantations. This gradually dried up most of the sea, fishermen lost their jobs - the fish disappeared.

Someone left their homes, some residents remained, and they are having a hard time. The wind lifts salt and toxic substances from the exposed bottom, which negatively affects people's health. Therefore, they are now trying to restore the Aral Sea.

Every year, 6 million hectares are subject to desertification. For comparison, this is like all the forests of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The UN estimates that the cost of desert expansion is approximately US$65 billion per year.

Why do the belts move?

“Climate zones are shifting due to deforestation and changing river beds,” says climatologist Evgeny Zubko.

The Water Code of the Russian Federation prohibits artificially changing riverbeds without the appropriate permits. Parts of the river may become silted, and then it will die. But uncoordinated changes in riverbeds still occur, sometimes on the initiative of local residents, sometimes to organize some kind of business near the reservoir.

What can we say about cutting down. In Russia, 4.3 million hectares of forest are destroyed annually, according to the World Resources Institute. More than the entire land fund of the Kaluga region. Therefore, Russia is among the top 5 world leaders in deforestation.

This is a disaster for nature and humans: when forest cover is destroyed, animals and plants die, rivers flowing nearby become shallow. Forests absorb harmful greenhouse gases, purifying the air. Without them, nearby cities will suffocate.

People began to talk about such a problem as global warming in the middle of the last century. Until now, this issue has been the subject of numerous discussions, the topic of international symposiums and the subjects of documentaries. Even a person far from environmental disciplines knows what global warming is. It is expressed in an increase in the average climate temperature over the past 100 years.

But is global warming as dangerous as scientists and the media make it out to be? When will it start? What changes will happen to the planet due to climate warming? What awaits humanity in the worst case? Is the world community able to solve the problem of global warming?

What indicates climate warming?

Documentary recording of temperature has been carried out for 150 years. Over the last century it has increased by an average of 0.5°C. A sharp warming of the climate occurred in the 1970s, when industrial activity increased. Not only the air temperature, but also the water temperature has increased.

Global warming has led to an intense decrease in snow cover, melting and retreat of glaciers in Antarctica, Greenland and on high mountain peaks. The consequence of this was a rise in sea level by about 10 cm. These and other phenomena prove that global warming is a real environmental problem.

What caused the warming?

Forest fires (during which a huge amount of carbon dioxide is released, moreover, a large number of trees are destroyed, converting it into oxygen through the process of photosynthesis).
Permafrost (methane is released from soil located in permafrost areas).
The world's oceans (reservoirs are the main source of steam).
Volcanoes (when they erupt, a colossal amount of carbon dioxide is released).
Fauna (organisms that exhale carbon dioxide significantly increase its concentration in the atmosphere).

However, the greenhouse effect itself does not pose a threat - without it, the average temperature of the Earth would be -18°C. The point is that human activity over the past few decades has led to a significant increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases, and, consequently, to an increase in climate temperature.

There are a number of other hypotheses that explain the occurrence of global warming on Earth. Satellite data suggests that the rise in climate temperature is caused by increased solar activity, which is not typical for previous years. However, scientists do not have a complete understanding of the changes in the activity of the star to make specific conclusions public. Basic facts indicate that the causes of global warming lie precisely in anthropogenic activities.

Factors that significantly increase the concentration of greenhouse gases:

Heavy industry (the main source of carbon dioxide emissions is the extraction and combustion of oil, gas and other minerals).
Agriculture (when the soil is intensively fertilized and treated with insecticides, it releases nitrogen dioxide, a greenhouse gas).
(the destruction of the “lungs of the planet” leads to an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide).
Overpopulation (to meet the needs of the Earth's population, a huge amount of natural resources is required).
Landfills (most of the waste is not recycled, but is burned or buried, which leads to a radical change in the biological system).

Despite the fact that humans have significantly contributed to climate warming, some scientists still prefer to divide the causes of global warming into natural and anthropogenic.

What does the future hold for the planet?

Global warming will not only lead to a further increase in the temperature of the earth's surface, but also to other changes. As a result, greenhouse gas emissions will increase. The level of the World Ocean will rise by half a meter in 100 years, in addition, the salinity of the water will change. The air will become more humid. Precipitation will begin to fall more intensely, its distribution will change, and the threshold for maximum temperatures will increase. The melting of glaciers will accelerate.

Global warming will affect the course of weather phenomena: winds and cyclones will become stronger and more frequent. Natural disasters, such as floods and hurricanes, will occur more regularly and their scale will increase significantly.

Ecologists identify several regions of the earth that will be particularly affected by the effects of global warming:

Sahara Desert;
Antarctic;
Deltas of large rivers in Asia;
Small islands.

Less rain will fall in the tropics and subtropics. As a result of global warming, the Earth's arid regions and deserts will increase in area, and permafrost will move further north.

Due to climate warming, the habitats of biological species will shift, which in turn will jeopardize the safety of living beings, and there will be a serious danger of extinction of organisms.

One of the controversial consequences of global warming is. Changes in the density of ocean waters caused by climate warming will lead to the fact that the pattern of sea currents will become similar to that of the Ice Age.

An increase in the number of industrial enterprises, landfills and waste disposal, and the development of oil and gas fields will lead to an irreversible change in the composition of the Earth's air envelope.

According to the optimistic scenario, according to which greenhouse gas emissions will remain at the same level, a critical situation will occur on the planet in 300 years. Otherwise, irreversible consequences will be observed within 100 years.

Global warming will lead to changes not only in the biosphere, but also in economic activity and society. The expansion of drought areas will lead to a reduction in cultivated areas, and agriculture will decline. Developed countries will face the problem of hunger and lack of drinking water.

Is it possible for humans to solve the global warming problem?

No matter how pessimistic the scenarios for the development of global warming may be, humanity is still able to take measures to ensure that the Earth does not become like Venus. Two main directions in the fight against global warming are considered the most promising today:

enhanced emissions reductions;
use of environmental technologies.

However, it is not entirely clear which method will be more likely to avoid the catastrophic consequences of climate warming. Moreover, the effectiveness of both measures has been repeatedly questioned.

Dramatically reducing emissions will become increasingly difficult as developing countries increase their economic activity. To ensure rapid growth of GDP, colossal energy resources are needed, the sources of which are oil, gas and coal. The burning of natural resources is the main cause of the release of large quantities of carbon dioxide. Due to the scale and financial costs, it is not possible to re-equip old industrial enterprises to modern environmental standards. International agreements, particularly the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to control greenhouse gases, are failing.

The second direction to combat global warming is related to the use of bioengineering technologies. Currently, installations are being created to pump carbon dioxide into special mines. Scientists are working on creative solutions, such as using aerosols to change the reflectivity of the upper atmosphere to increase. Whether this will be effective is still unknown.

Combining the two methods in the future will allow you to achieve better results. Improving converters and fuel combustion systems in cars will not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also reduce heavy metals. The use of alternative energy sources will help reduce emissions significantly, but at the moment these technologies require large financial investments. The important fact remains that the production of solar panels and windmills also produces colossal emissions.

Smaller, but no less significant measures to eliminate global warming include:

increase in green spaces;
use of energy-saving devices and appliances;
recycling;
attracting public attention to the problem.

If international control and large-scale environmental projects seem far from everyday life, then the above methods apply to all inhabitants of the planet. Riding a bicycle and a vegetarian diet will not harm you (rather, it will be beneficial!), and the involvement and concern of those who call the Earth their home will help prevent the consequences of global warming. Just as people once “jointly” disrupted the natural balance, so now, if everyone is interested, it will be possible to avoid catastrophic changes.

Global warming, caused by natural and anthropogenic causes, is a truly large-scale problem of our time. A person should not remain indifferent to it and miss ways to prevent climate change!

Average reading time: 9 minutes, 10 seconds

Part 1. What's going on?

Which is correct: climate change or global warming?

Both options are correct, but they have different meanings.

Global warming is only one type of climate change. The term “climate change” refers not only to an increase in temperature, but also to changes in other climatic characteristics, such as fluctuations in precipitation.

President Trump claimed that scientists are no longer citing global warming and are now calling it climate change because "the weather was very cold" during the winter. But his statement is incorrect. Scientists have used both terms for decades.

How much has the Earth's temperature increased?

Just over 1°C is more than it seems.

Since 1980, when data were first recorded globally, until early 2017, the Earth has warmed by about 1°C. The figure may seem insignificant, but when viewed as an average across the planet's surface, the changes are noticeable, which explains melting glaciers and rapidly rising sea levels. If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, scientists predict the Earth's average temperature will rise by 4°C, making most of the land uninhabitable for human life.

What is the greenhouse effect and how does it affect the climate?

It's hard to believe, but humanity has known about the greenhouse effect for more than a century.

In the 19th century, scientists discovered that certain gases trap heat emitted by the Earth, without which it would escape into space. Carbon dioxide plays a major role in this process: without it, the planet would be a frozen desert. In 1896, the first prediction was made about the rise in temperature on the planet associated with increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. Today, their number in the atmosphere has increased by 43% compared to pre-industrial times, and the average temperature of the Earth has increased by about the amount that scientists predicted.

Is it possible to say that humans are responsible for the increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere?

It is obvious.

There is compelling evidence, such as studies that have used radioactive radiation to determine the proportion of industrial greenhouse gas emissions. Research results show that excess gas is the result of human activity. Carbon dioxide levels have always risen and fallen naturally, but these changes have taken place over thousands of years. Geologists claim that people, in the course of economic activities, emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere much more intensely than nature has ever done.

Can natural factors cause warming?

Nope.

Theoretically, this is possible. If solar radiation were to increase, it would undoubtedly increase the temperature of the Earth's atmosphere. But scientists carefully studied the natural factors influencing the Earth's temperature and found that their changes would not be enough to cause such an effect. Warming is occurring extremely rapidly on a geological time scale, and no factor can have a greater impact than human activity.

Why do people deny climate change?

The main reason is ideology.

Instead of negotiating market-oriented climate change policies, some conservatives are denying global warming by challenging the science.

President Trump has repeatedly claimed that scientists are perpetrating a worldwide hoax to deceive the public, or that global warming was invented by China to destabilize American industry. The skeptics' arguments have become so dubious that even oil and coal companies have distanced themselves from such discussions, although some still finance the election campaigns of politicians with similar views.

Part 2: What are the consequences?

How big of a problem are we in?

We're in trouble.

Scientists say that in the next 25-30 years the climate will become warmer and weather conditions more extreme. Coral reefs and other vulnerable habitats are already beginning to die out. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase uncontrollably, scientists fear serious consequences in the long term: a disruption of world order, large-scale migration, the acceleration of the sixth mass extinction of plants and animals in Earth's history, melting glaciers, rising sea levels and the flooding of most of the world's coastal cities. The emissions that create these risks are happening right now and are a reason to think about the deep moral questions facing our generation.

Should I be concerned about climate change?

Are you rich enough to protect your descendants?

The harsh reality is that people, sometimes without realizing it, are already feeling the effects of climate change. For example, due to rising sea levels, about 83,000 residents of New York and New Jersey were affected by Hurricane Sandy, something that scientists say would not have happened in a stable climate. Tens of thousands of people already die in heat waves, which are only worsened by global warming. The refugee flows that have destabilized the political situation around the world have been partly linked to climate change. Of course, as with other socially significant problems, the poor will bear the first and heaviest blow.

How much will sea level rise?

The important thing is not “how much it will grow,” but how quickly.

Sea levels are rising rapidly and are currently rising at a rate of 0.3 meters per 100 years, forcing governments and property owners to spend tens of billions of dollars to combat coastal erosion. But if this trend does not change, the consequences of such an increase can be controlled, experts say.

The risk, however, is that sea levels will continue to rise. Scientists who study the history of the Earth believe that in the worst case, water will rise by half a meter per decade, although this is unlikely. Many experts believe that even if greenhouse gas emissions stopped tomorrow, a sea level rise of 4 to 6 meters is already inevitable and enough to drown many cities unless trillions of dollars are spent to protect them. How long this will take is unclear. But if emissions continue, the eventual increase could be 24-30 meters.

Are recent natural disasters related to climate change?

Some of them - yes.

Scientists have published compelling evidence that global warming is the cause of heat waves. As global sea levels rise due to human emissions, tropical rainfall and flooding become more severe. Global warming has worsened droughts in the Middle East and may have contributed to the recent drought in California.

In many other cases, the connection of natural phenomena, such as hurricanes, to global warming is not obvious or controversial. But modern methods of climate analysis allow scientists to constantly improve their knowledge of natural phenomena.

Part 3. What can we do?

Is there a solution to the problem?

Yes, but decisions are made too slowly.

Humanity has not taken any action for a long time, therefore, according to scientists, the situation now is disappointing. But as long as fossil fuels remain in the ground, it is not too late to act. Warming of the atmosphere will slow to a potentially manageable rate only if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to zero. The good news is that emissions are now falling in many countries as a result of programs such as fuel economy standards for cars, stricter building codes and limits on power plant emissions. But experts are of the opinion that to prevent the worst consequences of climate change, the process of transition to renewable energy sources must accelerate significantly.

What is the Paris Agreement?

Most countries have agreed to limit future emissions.